Arieh Kovler

Author: arieh

  • Election Roundup Sunday 28 December

    Moshe Kahlon’s Kulanu party finally has a couple of candidates. Joining him are Michel Oren, the former Ambassador to the USA, and Eli Alalouf, an Israel Prize winner who chairs a committee on investigating poverty in Israel. They’re both serious names and solid professionals, but it’s hard to pin down the precise character of the party yet. Maybe as more people join it’ll become clearer.

    Meanwhile, another Israeli Ambassador to the USA, incumbent Ron Dermer, got into trouble for endorsing Benjamin Netanyahu on an American TV show. Mr Dermer, a close friend of Mr Netanyahu, told a cable channel that

    “I have no doubt that when [Israelis] look at all the people that stand for the leadership of the country, that they will have confidence in the leadership of Prime Minister Netanyahu.”

    Ambassadors are supposed to be politically neutral in their roles, and Mr Dermer might get into trouble with the Civil Service Commission.

    More  Yisrael Beiteinu-linked figures have been detained and questioned for involvement in an alleged huge corruption scandal. The latest person questioned seems to be former Jerusalem Mayoral candidate Moshe Leon, though I can’t confirm that because journalists have been hinting at it rather than outright reporting it.

    A Labour Court hearing into claims by a former worker at the Prime Minister’s House, though, was postponed until after the election after Benjamin Netanyahu argued that the case could influence the polls. The ex-worker was allegedly going to reveal a lot of the private goings-on inside the Netanyahu household. Yisrael Beiteinu leader Avigdor Liberman attacked the delay, noting that a full investigation into his party was allowed during election time but an ongoing case about Netanyahu was delayed for political reasons.

    Danny Danon continued the trend of releasing ‘funny’ videos, by putting out a cartoon song set to the tune of “Oh Susanna” depicting him as an Old-West sheriff kicking out Haneen Zoabi, attacking Tzipi Livni etc. The video, called “Oh Zoabi” has been criticised by some for sexism and Zoabi herself reported it to the police as incitement. While clearly NOT incitement, I thought it was a bit crass and a little sexist. I also thought its general silliness shows Danon is not really running for Likud leader anymore, and is just trying to secure a good place in the party Primary.

    Another media figure is joining the Bayit Yehudi list. Yinon Magal, editor of Walla news, has been given one of the automatic spots that are in the gift of leader Naftali Bennett. Yinon has come under immediate criticism, though, due to the increase in sexual content on Walla under his editorship, with some Bayit Yehudi members questioning his suitability as a candidate for the religious party.

    Meanwhile, the polls are messy: some show Yisrael Beitenu almost disappearing while others show that the current investigation has had no impact at all. Some show both Shas and Yishai’s ‘Yachad, Ha’am Itanu’ party struggling to make threshold, while others have both comfortably in the seats. More on this later in the week.

  • Election Roundup Wednesday 24 December

    A few big political developments today:

    1. Benjamin Netanyahu has been disqualified from the Likud leadership campaign – maybe. The party comptroller accused him of using party funds in his leadership campaign and demanded an apology or he’d face disqualification. Mr Netanyahu responded that the comptroller had no authority to disqualify him. So today, the comptroller disqualified him.Despite this, it’s almost certain that Netanyahu will find a way to remain on the Likud leadership ballot, whether it’s by appealing the decision to the internal Likud court, and eventually to the District Court, or by apologising to the Comptroller. Of course, if he apologises then perhaps he’d be attacked by Mr Never-Apologise, Naftali Bennett! It’s also worth noting that we’re past the deadline to register new parties. Anyway, watch this space while the mess is sorted out.
    2. Yisrael Beiteinu’s Faina Kirshenbaum is one 30 people were interviewed under police caution this morning in connection with a huge embezzlement case after a year-long police investigation. The case reportedly involves getting millions of shekels of public money, via NGOs, to fund nonexistent building projects. Also under investigation are a former minister and senior officials in Government and NGOs. Yisrael Beiteinu has condemned the arrests as being politically-motivated (which is also a valid reason to miss your court date); the party (accurately) notes that there’s been some big investigation of Yisrael Beiteinu MKs announced before every election since 1999 and that they usually come to nothing. More details will emerge in the coming days.
    3. Moshe Kahlon’s Kulanu party will hold a press conference at 16:30 today to announce something. Everyone says that the ‘something’ is that Michael Oren, historian and former Ambassador to the USA, will be running on his list. Oren’s been rumoured to be running with Kahlon for more than a year, so this announcement will surprise nobody. In fact I wonder why it’s taken so long to seal the deal. Also, the official English spelling of the party is “Koolunu” but that sounds like it’s a Pokémon.
    4. We’re getting to the point where there are enough polls to start talking meaningfully about them, so expect some more psephological posts from me in the future, either here or on my other blog.

  • Political update Monday 22 December

    Will they or won’t they? Well, they didn’t. After weeks of speculation, vacillation and hesitation, Tekuma decided to remain a part of the Bayit Yehudi faction instead of breaking away to join Eli Yishai. Inside Bayit Yehudi they’re likely to win several seats in the next election. As part of Yishai’s new party they risked winning fewer or even none. One Israeli commentator described the decision as ” a choice between winning the lottery or jumping off a roof”. Nevertheless, Tekuma nearly chose the roof, with party leader Uri Ariel speaking in favour of the split. Reportedly, one reason that the Tekuma central committee decided to stay in Bayit Yehudi was that joining Yishai would have banned women from running for the party. One of Tekuma’s current MKs, Orit Struck, would have found herself barred from their list. Anyway, after all that fuss nothing much has changed except that Tekuma managed to get a better seats deal out of Naftali Bennett and the relationship between Bennett and Ariel must be pretty awful.

    Of course, it’s also bad news for Eli Yishai, whose new party without Tekuma looks a lot like it might fail to get any seats at all. That could change if he announces some popular list members or wins the backing of enough Shas-supporting Rabbis.

    In Likud, Moshe Feiglin dropped out of the race for the Likud leadership after the party decided to hold the leadership and primary elections on the same day.  Other Likud members are still trying to get the two elections to be run separately by taking the issue to court. Benjamin Netanyahu got into trouble for allegedly using Likud party resources to help his leadership campaign, forcing him to write a letter of apology to the party.

    Tzipi Livni’s HaTnua party doesn’t really exist anymore, but it still managed to have its own internal argument. Elazar Stern, a current MK for HaTnua, hit out at Ms Livni for merging with Labour and leaving him without a party or a seat. There are rumour he might join Yisrael Beiteinu.

    Tzipi Livni was also attacked by Likud after John Kerry went around telling people she’d convinced him to block the Palestinian UN plan because it would strengthen the Israeli right. Likud said that this proved that Livni was in cahoots with the USA to oust Netanyahu, while Livni said it proved that she has real international influence.

    Meanwhile, the two big parties are both tacking centrewards. Mr Netanyahu agreed to raise the minimum wage for public sector workers, a key demand of the Left, and Issac Herzog and Tzipi Livni spoke about the importance of maintaining Israeli control over Jerusalem, especially the Western Wall.

    Labour has also asked that we please call Isaac Herzog ‘Isaac Herzog’ and not by his nickname ‘Bouji’. Lots of Israeli politicians have nicknames that they often picked up in the army – Bibi Netanyahu, Boogie Yaalon – but apparently ‘Bouji’ doesn’t sound Prime-Ministerial.

    And finally Channel 2 has set up a Whatsapp group for Knesset members which apparently now has a quarter of all current MKs and a few candidates. It seems to be the place to be, full of arguments, self-promotion and sarcastic comments. I’m trying to work out how to get invited myself.

  • Election roundup Wednesday 17 December

    After a few days of party splits, the last 48 hours have been all talk about party mergers.

    Rumours about a merger on the ‘centre’ continue. A new poll showed a theoretical merged party of Moshe Kahlon’s Kulanu and Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid getting 24 seats, though that same poll had higher vote-shares (12 for Kulanu, 11 for Lapid) than other recent polls anyway. I wonder if the poll asked about the merged party first, which would artificially boost the two parties in the seperate question? Either way, despite meetings between Lapid and Kahlon, a merger is still being strongly denied.

    An alternative merger being discussed is between Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu party. Liberman has been trying to rebrand his party as pragmatic and centrist. Again, no deal has been reached but there are rumours that Liberman and Lapid discussed it.

    Staying on mergers, the merger between Eli Yishai’s new party, now called “Ha’Am Itanu” (the nation is with us) and the Tekuma faction hasn’t happened yet. Tekuma leader Uri Ariel has reportedly been made a counter-offer by Naftali Bennett to stay in Bayit Yehudi in return for higher-placed candidates on the joint list. Yishai and Ariel reportedly met on Tuesday, but no deal is done.

    Yishai might be worrying, as the latest polls show his new party on only four seats and very close to not making the election threshold at all. Deri’s Shas is similarly suffering, with both parties at real risk of not making it into the next Knesset.

    Naftali Bennett also made a video disguised as a bearded Tel Aviv hipster apologising to people. It’s quite funny and well-done and gets its political point across.

    Professor Manuel Trajtenberg is most famous for writing the Trajtenberg report, the response and plan for responding to the demands of the summer 2011 cost-of-living protesters. Yesterday (Wednesday) he resigned from his Government job to enter politics. The talk is that he’ll join the Labour party. This is something of a blow to Moshe Kahlon’s Kulanu party, as many people expected Trajtenberg to run with Kahlon. Kulanu has still not announced any major names as joining its list.

    The Likud primary dates saga continues. First, Banjamin Netanyahu tried to move the general primary earlier, to make it the same day as their leadership primary. This suits him as it makes it harder for his challengers, Danny Danon and Moshe Feiglin, and it’s also a lot cheaper for the party. There was an internal vote and Netanyahu won. Then Danon and Feiglin appealed to a Likud internal court, which ruled that the vote was no good and so the old dates would stand. Now Netanyahu has appealed again and won again. But it’s not over, with Fieglin and Danon considering going to a ‘real’ court to try to argue their case.

    And in perhaps the oddest news of the day, Shmuel Flatto-Sharon announced that he would run in the Likud primaries to seek a seat in Knesset. Flatto-Sharon was a French Jew who fled to Israel in the 1970s after embezzling $60 million. He was going to be extradited back to France until he realised that Knesset members all get immunity from extradition, so he formed the Flatto-Sharon Party in 1977. Via a combination of clever campaigning and outright bribery, Flatto-Sharon managed to win TWO seats in the Knesset. He wasn’t re-elected and became a talkshow host and media figure. I doubt he’ll get a good place on the Likud list but you never know.

  • Election roundup Monday 15 December

    Today’s election update:

    After last night’s press conference at which Shas leader Arye Deri was supported by founder R. Ovadia’s daughter, Adina bar-Shalom, today several recordings surfaced of Mrs bar-Shalom criticising Deri’s leadership of Shas.

    Eli Yishai, the former Shas leader who left the party yesterday, held a press conference tonight to discuss his own new party. Well, he tried to – but it was disrupted by Shas people calling him a traitor, grabbing the picture of R Ovadia and forcing Yishai to flee into a side-room, protected by hotel security, for his own safety. So that went well. Meanwhile, everyone is waiting to see if Uri Ariel will join Yishai to form a new party or will stick with Jewish Home.

    More trouble for Benjamin Netanyahu, as the Likud ‘court’ ruled that he’d actually lose last week’s vote on whether to make the party Primary earlier. He’s said he will appeal this ruling tomorrow, and it might end up at the Supreme Court. All this while he spent all day in Rome meeting John Kerry.

    The far-right is planning another comeback, with Michael Ben-Ari and Baruch Marzel resurrecting the Otzma L’Yisrael faction. It will probably struggle to make the new 4% election threshold, though.

    Moshe Kahlon and Yair Lapid met today in a supposed-to-be-secret meeting. Rumours say it was discussing ‘uniting the centre’, though this is not thought to be a full merged list and more of a cooperation agreement.

    Labour MK Avishai Braverman announced that he wasn’t planning to stand for the next Knesset.